The Real-World Safety Potential of Connected Vehicle Technology

Objective: This article estimates the safety potential of a current commercially available connected vehicle technology in real-world crashes.

Method: Data from the Centre for Automotive Safety Research's at-scene in-depth crash investigations in South Australia were used to simulate the circumstances of real-world crashes. A total of 89 crashes were selected for inclusion in the study. The crashes were selected as representative of the most prevalent crash types for injury or fatal crashes and had potential to be mitigated by connected vehicle technology. The trajectory, speeds, braking, and impact configuration of the selected in-depth cases were replicated in a software package and converted to a file format allowing “replay” of the scenario in real time as input to 2 Cohda Wireless MK2 onboard units. The Cohda Wireless onboard units are a mature connected vehicle technology that has been used in both the German simTD field trial and the U.S. Department of Transport's Safety Pilot project and have been tuned for low false alarm rates when used in the real world. The crash replay was achieved by replacing each of the onboard unit Global Positioning System (GPS) inputs with the simulated data of each of the involved vehicles. The time at which the Cohda Wireless threat detection software issued an elevated warning was used to calculate a new impact speed using 3 different reaction scenarios and 2 levels of braking.

Results: It was found that between 37 and 86% of the simulated crashes could be avoided, with highest percentage due a fully autonomous system braking at 0.7 g. The same system also reduced the impact speed relative to the actual crash in all cases. Even when a human reaction time of 1.2 s and moderate braking of 0.4 g was assumed, the impact speed was reduced in 78% of the crashes. Crash types that proved difficult for the threat detection engine were head-on crashes where the approach angle was low and right turn–opposite crashes.

Conclusions: These results indicate that connected vehicle technology can be greatly beneficial in real-world crash scenarios and that this benefit would be maximized by having the vehicle intervene autonomously with heavy braking. The crash types that proved difficult for the connected vehicle technology could be better addressed if controller area network (CAN) information is available, such as steering wheel angle, so that driver intent can be inferred sooner. More accurate positioning in the real world (e.g., combining satellite positioning and accelerometer data) would allow the technology to be more effective for near-collinear head-on and rear-end crashes, because the low approach angles that are common in such crashes are currently ignored in order to minimize false alarms due to positioning uncertainty.     

Compromising sustainable mobility? The case of the Gothenburg congestion tax

Congestion charging is widely considered an effective policy measure to regulate and reduce car traffic demand and associated environmental and health problems in cities. However, introducing restrictive measures to constrain individual choice and behaviour for the common good has often proven difficult. Using a specific case, the Gothenburg congestion tax introduced in 2013, we study the policy process behind the introduction of the tax and assess to what extent green values were compromised along the way. The tax was made possible by co-financing infrastructure investments, including roads, which seemingly contradicts stated goals of reducing car traffic and emissions. We show how the tax was ‘muddled through’ in a top-down political compromise by a grand coalition where different interests could legitimate their support in relation to the achievement of partially conflicting objectives and projects. However, to declare the regulatory goals fully neutralised would be to underestimate the scheme's direct environmental effects and restrictive potential. Finding a compromise with powerful political and economic interests was necessary to get it off the ground. Once launched, however, it can over time regain its restrictive properties and lead to more profound long-term effects.     

Sources and Transport of Phosphorus to Rivers in California and Adjacent States,U.S., as Determined by SPARROW Modeling

The SPARROW (SPAtially Referenced Regression on Watershed attributes) model was used to simulate annual phosphorus loads and concentrations in unmonitored stream reaches in California, U.S., and portions of Nevada and Oregon. The model was calibrated using de‐trended streamflow and phosphorus concentration data at 80 locations. The model explained 91% of the variability in loads and 51% of the variability in yields for a base year of 2002. Point sources, geological background, and cultivated land were significant sources. Variables used to explain delivery of phosphorus from land to water were precipitation and soil clay content. Aquatic loss of phosphorus was significant in streams of all sizes, with the greatest decay predicted in small‐ and intermediate‐sized streams. Geological sources, including volcanic rocks and shales, were the principal control on concentrations and loads in many regions. Some localized formations such as the Monterey shale of southern California are important sources of phosphorus and may contribute to elevated stream concentrations. Many of the larger point source facilities were located in downstream areas, near the ocean, and do not affect inland streams except for a few locations. Large areas of cultivated land result in phosphorus load increases, but do not necessarily increase the loads above those of geological background in some cases because of local hydrology, which limits the potential of phosphorus transport from land to streams.     

Long‐Term Trends of Nutrients and Sediment from the Nontidal Chesapeake Watershed: An Assessment of Progress by River and Season

To assess historical loads of nitrogen (N), phosphorus (P), and suspended sediment (SS) from the nontidal Chesapeake Bay watershed (NTCBW), we analyzed decadal seasonal trends of flow‐normalized loads at the fall‐line of nine major rivers that account for >90% of NTCBW flow. Evaluations of loads by season revealed N, P, and SS load magnitudes have been highest in January‐March and lowest in July‐September, but the temporal trends have followed similar decadal‐scale patterns in all seasons, with notable exceptions. Generally, total N (TN) load has dropped since the late 1980s, but particulate nutrients and SS have risen since the mid‐1990s. The majority of these rises were from Susquehanna River and relate to diminished net trapping at the Conowingo Reservoir. Substantial rises in SS were also observed, however, in other rivers. Moreover, the summed rise in particulate P load from other rivers is of similar magnitude as from Susquehanna. Dissolved nutrient loads have dropped in the upland (Piedmont and above) rivers, but risen in two small rivers in the Coastal Plain affected by lagged groundwater input. In addition, analysis of fractional contributions revealed consistent N trends across the upland watersheds. Finally, total N:total P ratios have declined in most rivers, suggesting the potential for changes in nutrient limitation. Overall, this integrated study of historical data highlights the value of maintaining long‐term monitoring at multiple watershed locations.     

Reducing Fertilizer‐Nitrogen Losses from Rowcrop Landscapes: Insights and Implications from a Spatially Explicit Watershed Model

We present conceptual and quantitative models that predict changes in fertilizer‐derived nitrogen delivery from rowcrop landscapes caused by agricultural conservation efforts implemented to reduce nutrient inputs and transport and increase nutrient retention in the landscape. To evaluate the relative importance of changes in the sources, transport, and sinks of fertilizer‐derived nitrogen across a region, we use the spatially explicit SPAtially Referenced Regression On Watershed attributes watershed model to map the distribution, at the small watershed scale within the Upper Mississippi‐Ohio River Basin (UMORB), of: (1) fertilizer inputs; (2) nutrient attenuation during delivery of those inputs to the UMORB outlet; and (3) nitrogen export from the UMORB outlet. Comparing these spatial distributions suggests that the amount of fertilizer input and degree of nutrient attenuation are both important in determining the extent of nitrogen export. From a management perspective, this means that agricultural conservation efforts to reduce nitrogen export would benefit by: (1) expanding their focus to include activities that restore and enhance nutrient processing in these highly altered landscapes; and (2) targeting specific types of best management practices to watersheds where they will be most valuable. Doing so successfully may result in a shift in current approaches to conservation planning, outreach, and funding.     

Influence of Riparian Seepage Zones on Nitrate Variability in Two Agricultural Headwater Streams

Riparian seeps have been recognized for their contributions to stream flow in headwater catchments, but there is limited data on how seeps affect stream water quality. The objective of this study was to examine the effect of seeps on the variability of stream NO₃‐N concentrations in FD36 and RS, two agricultural catchments in Pennsylvania. Stream samples were collected at 10‐m intervals over reaches of 550 (FD36) and 490 m (RS) on 21 occasions between April 2009 and January 2012. Semi‐variogram analysis was used to quantify longitudinal patterns in stream NO₃‐N concentration. Seep water was collected at 14 sites in FD36 and 7 in RS, but the number of flowing seeps depended on antecedent conditions. Seep NO₃‐N concentrations were variable (0.1‐29.5 mg/l) and were often greater downslope of cropped fields compared to other land uses. During base flow, longitudinal variability in stream NO₃‐N concentrations increased as the number of flowing seeps increased. The influence of seeps on the variability of stream NO₃‐N concentrations was less during storm flow compared to the variability of base flow NO₃‐N concentrations. However, 24 h after a storm in FD36, an increase in the number of flowing seeps and decreasing streamflow resulted in the greatest longitudinal variability in stream NO₃‐N concentrations recorded. Results indicate seeps are important areas of NO₃‐N delivery to streams where targeted adoption of mitigation measures may substantially improve stream water quality.     

国家《大气污染防治行动计划》健康效益评估

为了提高空气质量改善进程,2013 年国家发布了《大气污染防治行动计划》。本文基于空气污染与健康效益评估模型(BenMAP),对人口分布资料、大气污染与人体健康影响的暴露反应关系等进行了本土化修正,采用“支付意愿法”与“疾病成本法”相结合的方法,系统评估了《大气污染防治行动计划》实施后,PM_2.5 污染变化引起的环境健康效益。研究结果表明,《大气污染防治行动计划》的实施将在一定程度上降低PM_2.5 环境浓度,改善环境空气质量。如果《大气污染防治行动计划》空气质量目标全面实现,可以避免城镇8.9 万居民的过早死亡,减少12 万人次住院治疗以及941 万人次的门诊和急诊病例,实现的全国健康效益约为867 亿元/ 年,说明了《大气污染防治行动计划》实施的健康有益性。本文对政府部门开展污染损失评估及制定环境健康政策具有重要的参考价值。     

The Aging of America's Reservoirs: In‐Reservoir and Downstream Physical Changes and Habitat Implications

Reservoirs are important for various purposes including flood control, water supply, power generation, and recreation. The aging of America's reservoirs and progressive loss of water storage capacity resulting from ongoing sedimentation, coupled with increasing societal needs, will cause the social, economic, environmental, and political importance of reservoirs to continually increase. The short‐ and medium‐term (<50 years) environmental consequences of reservoir construction and operation are well known and include an altered flow regime, lost connectivity (longitudinal, floodplain), an altered sediment regime, substrate compositional change, and downstream channel degradation. In general, reservoir‐related changes have had adverse consequences for the natural ecosystem. Longer term (>50 years) environmental changes as reservoirs enter “old” age are less understood. Additional research is needed to help guide the future management of aging reservoir systems and support the difficult decisions that will have to be made. Important research directions include assessment of climate change effects on aging and determination of ecosystem response to ongoing aging and various management actions that may be taken with the intent of minimizing or reversing the physical effects of aging.     

Resolution and Analysis of Spatial Variations and Patterns in an Urban Lake with Rapid Profiling Instrumentation

Rapid response vertical profiling instrumentation was used to document spatial variability and patterns in a small urban lake, Onondaga Lake, associated with multiple drivers. Paired profiles of temperature, specific conductance (SC), turbidity (T_n), fluorometric chlorophyll a (Chl_f), and nitrate nitrogen (NO₃^?) were collected at >30 fixed locations (a “gridding”) weekly, over the spring to fall interval of several years. These gridding data are analyzed (1) to characterize phytoplankton (Chl_f) patchiness in the lake's upper waters, (2) to establish the representativeness of a single long‐term site for monitoring lake‐wide conditions, and (3) to resolve spatial patterns of multiple tracers imparted by buoyancy effects of inflows. Multiple buoyancy signatures were resolved, including overflows from less dense inflows, and interflows to metalimnetic depths and underflows to the bottom from the plunging of more dense inputs. Three different metrics had utility as tracers in depicting the buoyancy signatures as follows: (1) SC, for salinity‐enriched tributaries and the more dilute river that receives the lake's outflow, (2) T_n, for the tributaries during runoff events, and (3) NO₃^?, for the effluent of a domestic waste treatment facility and from the addition of NO₃^? solution to control methyl mercury. The plunging inflow phenomenon, which frequently prevailed, has important management implications.     

Seeking,Thinking, Acting: Understanding Suburban Resident Perceptions and Behaviors Related to Stream Quality

Theories in risk, psychology, and communication suggest aiming to inform the public about basic ecological facts may not be enough to influence knowledge of risks or behaviors to mitigate water quality risks. The risk information‐seeking and processing model and the theory of planned behavior suggest several additional variables that are likely to influence risk‐mitigating behaviors. We used data from a survey of watershed residents in Ohio to explore a model of behavioral intentions to positively impact stream health. Residents' informational norms, or the perceived pressure to know about local stream health, strongly predicted their information‐seeking behaviors. Active‐seeking behaviors predicted positive attitudes toward behaviors impacting stream health, which predicted intentions to positively impact stream health. Implications for outreach include couching communication in terms of risk found important to the local community, here wildlife were seen as negatively influenced by water quality, as opposed to plain reports typically provided by utility companies. Increasing social pressure to feel informed by emphasizing the existing knowledge of stream ecology among residents could change the norm for the less informed. A low response rate limits the generalizability of findings here, but leveraging these findings in outreach efforts could prove more successful in engaging the public to improve stream health and support policies to improve stream health.